The Invasion of Ukraine
The invasion of Ukraine was expected internally to be swift and easy, similar to the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Russian political leadership envisioned a triumphant and popular war like Crimea, but it soon became apparent that this was not the case. Regular Russians being drafted into the military led to a decline in the popularity of the special military operation as people grew increasingly scared.
Complex History of Russia and Ukraine
Russia and Ukraine have a complex and intertwined history, with Ukraine being part of the Russian Empire and later the Soviet Union. Russian language and culture have long been dominant in Ukraine, with many Ukrainians being Russian speakers and having relatives in Russia. The war in Ukraine is seen by many as a civil war, which carries emotional weight and needed Putin to change the narrative to a war with the West.
Putin’s Power and Resilience
Despite unprecedented sanctions on the Russian economy, ongoing conflicts, and the silencing of opposition, Putin has managed to maintain his power and influence. The expectations of Putin’s weakening have not come to fruition as both he and Russia have shown resilience beyond what was anticipated. This has led to questions about whether Putin is more powerful than ever, given his ability to hold onto power despite significant challenges.
The Power Struggle with NATO
The West for Putin is embodied by NATO, a military alliance of countries in Europe and North America. Established by 12 countries at the onset of the Cold War, NATO now boasts 32 member countries, including former Soviet states. Putin believes that NATO’s expansion poses a direct threat to Russia, viewing the organization as a formidable adversary.
Pride in Conflict with the West
When the Ukraine war is framed as a battle against the West, it instills a sense of pride among Russians. The perception of standing up to the whole world and having the country’s army continue to fight fuels support for the conflict within Russia. This support remains high due to the lack of independent polls and the perceived absence of direct consequences for ordinary citizens.
Unprecedented Sanctions and Economic Resilience
In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia. These measures included freezing a significant portion of Russia’s foreign reserves, totaling around $300 billion, with almost half of it mobilized in Western institutions. The sanctions aimed to isolate Russia as a pariah state and curb its ability to engage in illegal warfare.
Despite the sanctions, the Russian economy managed to weather the storm. More than a thousand companies scaled back or withdrew from Russia to comply with the sanctions, yet the country’s economy continued to grow at a faster rate than G7 nations in the years following the Ukraine invasion. Additionally, major economies like China, India, and Brazil maintained trade relations with Russia, providing a lifeline for its economy.
The Impact of Sanctions
The main source of Russia’s income hasn’t been sanctioned by the West. Oil sanctions are decorative and its main source of income like grains, natural gas, and nuclear fuels are not sanctioned by its biggest buyer. The EU Neighbouring countries like Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan are also helping Russia evade sanctions.
Parallel Trading
The practice of parallel trading means that these countries import thousands of Western products like iPhones, BMWs, and even cans of Coke, and then sell them at an inflated price in Russia. Russians are more or less used to rising prices, but the main national fear is empty shelves. Ultimately, the sanctions were not felt by the majority of the Russian population, who could still buy food in the supermarkets and withdraw money from their accounts.
Putin’s Popularity
So, the Russian economy under sanctions is functioning relatively well. This is making Putin more popular. He and his propaganda portray him as someone who will fight the West in his major assault on the Russian economy, which has stood strong despite everything. Russia’s economy is growing. The quality of this growth is doubtful and questionable because it stems from producing weapons and firing them at the Ukrainians. This kind of GDP growth looks nice on paper, but doesn’t necessarily help ordinary Russians.
Censorship and Repression
So why do so few Russians speak out against Putin’s government in 2022? The Kremlin clamped down on free speech with new censorship laws, which prevent any criticism of the so-called special military operation in Ukraine. Just one of these offenses known as discrediting the Russian army is punishable by up to five years in prison.
Paranoia and Fear in Russia
The new laws have created a culture of paranoia and fear in Russia, with people reporting one another for speaking out against Putin’s government. He believes that he needs to do everything to suppress all kinds of dissent in the country, because the next revolution might start with a three girls just protesting on the streets.
Internet Restrictions
The Kremlin has also blocked or blacklisted many websites. Now the most dangerous content is generated inside the country. These days, it’s not about some report on the BBC. It’s about people who might witness something on the street and post it immediately and be shared by millions of people.
Control of Media
Putin has also made significant efforts to control the media and access to information in Russia. Only three of the candidates appeared on the ballot in 2024 for Putin’s re-election. They were all Kremlin-approved, posing no real challenge to the president. He knows how to suppress political discussion in the country. And also he’s really good at removing his political opponents. He either killed or sent to prison all the people who might actually challenge him in power.
Opposition’s Fate
Just a month before the 2024 election Putin’s fiercest critic, Alexei Navalny died suddenly in an Arctic penal colony. The Kremlin denied allegations he was murdered by Russian authorities. Opposing or criticizing Putin has always been a risky move. Several other of his opponents have died in suspicious circumstances or been murdered. Shortly after an attempted mutiny in 2023, Wagner mercenary leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash.
The Power Play
Living in a country where journalists, politicians, and activists are killed or imprisoned can be a terrifying experience. The atmosphere can be psychologically discomforting for the residents. But the question remains: Is Putin more powerful than ever?
A Matter of Perspective
When it comes to Putin’s power, it all comes down to perspective. Putin’s propaganda machine is adept at manipulating perspectives. For instance, in the aftermath of a terror attack on a Moscow concert hall in March 2024, Putin quickly shifted blame to Ukraine, despite the Islamic State group claiming responsibility.
The Quest for Power
Putin’s primary goal seems to be maintaining his hold on power. He sees himself as having a historic mission to save the country and believes he is the only one capable of achieving greatness. With the recent changes to the constitution, Putin could potentially remain in power until 2036, by which time he would be 83 years old. Retirement may not be on the horizon for him, but mortality is inevitable.
